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The weather forecast for May 9 shows a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the short term period, although the exact location and timing are uncertain.

This uncertainty is due to the development of mesoscale features, particularly convective boundaries created by storms in central parts of the state late tonight and the storms that passed through the Lower Rio Grande Valley (RGV) early this morning.

Analyzing the atmospheric pattern, another weak shortwave trough is expected to move across South Texas, providing support for the enhancement of storms.

The general convective pattern suggests that showers and thunderstorms may occur in the Brush Country this morning or afternoon, followed by the storms firing up along the Sierra Madre.

However, convection allowing models indicate less activity along the mountains compared to Monday night’s storms, leading to increased uncertainty regarding their eastward progression towards Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

Deep South Texas is currently under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms, with the potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail associated with the storms that develop and move into the area.

Forecast uncertainty further increases for Wednesday, as the potential for showers and thunderstorms depends on the developments today.

Both deterministic models and CAMs (Convective Allowing Models) are struggling to accurately predict the storm locations.

Despite the uncertainty in convective development, the region has ample available moisture, which means any showers and thunderstorms that occur have the potential to bring localized heavy rain.

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has included a level 1 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall, indicating the possibility of isolated flash flooding.

Temperatures will be influenced by potential rainfall and cloud cover, but they are expected to be seasonally warm, ranging from the lower to mid-90s both today and tomorrow.

That’s the weather update from Local 23 News at 6:30.

Stay tuned for more information on Valley Central dot com.

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