A moderate to strong atmospheric river is expected to hit the region from tonight into Tuesday night, with forecast models indicating the system will landfall tonight, bringing with it a slug of rich moisture.
Integrated vapor transport is expected to peak in the 700-750 kg/m/s range, along with a 60 kt low-level jet.
Surface low pressure is expected to rapidly deepen northeastward toward the Bay Area by Tuesday morning, enhancing forcing for ascent and tightening the low-level pressure gradient, resulting in gusty to damaging winds.
Saturated soils, coupled with elevated river and stream levels, suggest that water-related impacts are a sure bet, with precipitation efficiency expected to be enhanced late tonight into Tuesday via warm rain processes, increasing the threat for additional urban, river, and flash flooding.
The potential for shallow landslides and debris flows will also increase, with hazardous travel conditions likely to exist into at least Wednesday and potentially beyond for some areas.
A high wind warning has been issued, with an increased potential for widespread and prolonged power outages.