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Democratic strategists are describing 2024 as a dire situation, comparing it to a five-alarm fire or a cardiac case in need of a defibrillator. They are worried that Joe Biden won’t be able to replicate his success in beating Donald Trump in 2020.

A recent New York Times poll showed Biden trailing in all five Swing States, by as much as 10 points in Nevada. This is consistent with other polling that indicates weaknesses for Biden, particularly in the economy and among black, Hispanic, and young voters. The Democratic base is lacking enthusiasm and there are concerns about Biden’s age.

Democrats are finding it increasingly difficult to explain away these issues and are vocalizing their concerns. However, the party is essentially stuck with Biden as the filing deadlines for primary elections are quickly approaching. It is unclear who the potential voter is in 2024 – someone who didn’t vote for Trump in 2020 but decides to vote for him in 2024, or voters simply choosing not to show up for Biden or not vote at all.

Both scenarios are problematic for Biden, as getting people to show up is crucial for winning elections, but flipping a voter from your opponent is also valuable. Any dissatisfaction or belief that Trump would have performed better poses a problem for Biden..

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